ABQJ OPINION: Nella making inroads with Hispanic voters and putting NM in play

New Mexico, long considered a Democratic stronghold, is now emerging as a critical battleground in the 2024 elections.

This unexpected shift can be attributed to several factors, including a changing political landscape and strategic maneuvers by Republican candidates. The once solidly blue state, which President Joe Biden won by a comfortable 10 points in 2020, is now in play, with both parties vying intensely for its electoral votes and key Senate seat.

Recent polling data, including internal numbers from the Nella Domenici campaign and leaked surveys from Democratic sources, reveal a dramatically altered political environment.

Nella Domenici, the Republican contender, has seen a significant rise in her favorability and name recognition, translating into increased support at the ballot box.

Domenici has gained eight points since March, now trailing incumbent Democrat Martin Heinrich by a mere three points, within the statistical margin of error. Meanwhile, the presidential race in the state is a statistical dead heat, with President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump neck and neck.

One of the primary reasons for this shift is Domenici’s proactive and strategic campaign. By investing heavily in early television advertising, she has successfully introduced herself to the electorate and built a positive image. This early media blitz has not only increased her name recognition but also boosted her favorability ratings, positioning her as a viable alternative to Heinrich.

Furthermore, Domenici’s campaign has effectively resonated with key demographics, particularly Hispanics and independents, who are crucial to winning in New Mexico.

Domenici is making inroads with Hispanic voters, a group that has traditionally leaned Democratic but is now showing signs of significant shift. Domenici is currently winning Hispanics by five points.

The state’s large Hispanic population, combined with its status as a border state and the political dynamics surrounding energy policy, align well with the new Republican coalition. This coalition is characterized by strong support from working-class voters, a tough stance on border security, and a commitment to energy independence — issues that resonate deeply in New Mexico.

Independents, another critical voter bloc, are also trending toward Domenici. She currently leads Heinrich among independents by an impressive 17 points.

This shift is indicative of broader discontent with the current Democratic leadership and a desire for change. Domenici’s message of pragmatic governance, economic growth, and security is striking a chord with voters who are disillusioned with partisan politics and looking for practical solutions to the state’s challenges.

The numbers tell a compelling story. Among the 77% of New Mexicans who have heard of both Martin Heinrich and Nella Domenici, Domenici leads 46-44%. Even more telling is the data from the 48% of voters who have an opinion of both candidates: Domenici overwhelmingly wins this group by 55-41%. These figures underscore the growing appeal of Domenici’s candidacy and the declining support for Heinrich, suggesting that New Mexico could indeed be a major battleground in the upcoming elections.

Assuming Martin Heinrich sees the same numbers, this could explain his reactionary early ad spending.

The broader implications of this shift in New Mexico are significant. A Republican victory in this state would signal a major realignment in American politics, demonstrating the viability of the new Republican coalition and its appeal to diverse voter groups. It would also have a profound impact on the balance of power in the Senate, potentially tipping the scales in favor of the GOP.

As the 2024 elections approach, all eyes will be on New Mexico. The state’s evolving political landscape and the impressive gains made by Nella Domenici suggest that it will be a hotly contested battleground. She’s running a smart campaign focused on the issues that matter to New Mexicans.

For now, New Mexico stands as a testament to the changing dynamics of American politics, where once solid blue states can become competitive battlegrounds, and where smart, strategic campaigning can turn the tide.

New Mexico’s status as a battleground state underscores the fluidity of the current political environment. With Nella Domenici’s impressive rise and the tight presidential race, the state is poised to play a pivotal role in the 2024 elections.

The outcome here could very well shape the future of American politics, making New Mexico a state to watch closely in the coming months.

Joe Lujan is a 18th generation New Mexican and a lifelong Republican.